axieinfinitycryptogame|无论“鹰”还是“鸽”，市场恐不再相信鲍威尔了

Special topic: the Fed keeps its benchmark interest rate unchanged and slows down the pace of table contraction from June.

Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell spoke after the monetary policy meeting.AxieinfinitycryptogameThe comments may not appease weary US stock and bond investors as uncertainty about the inflation path heightens concerns about the upcoming data.

While Powell acknowledged the Fed's recent lack of progress in fighting inflation, he reiterated the view that interest rates are likely to fall this year.

This is a sigh of relief for those who worry that the Fed may restart raising interest rates after three months of higher-than-expected inflation.

However, some investors believe that the market is unlikely to believe Powell this time because of the Fed's high-profile shift to dovish policy in December, followed by an unexpected rise in inflation and employment data in the following months. They said another string of strong economic data could reignite fears of raising interest rates and trigger further turmoil in the stock and bond markets.

Wednesday's market volatility reflected investor nervousness, with the S & P 500 index (SPX) closing down 0.Axieinfinitycryptogame.3%, after rising more than 1% at Powell's press conference. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell by nearly 10 basis points. Steve Hooker, a portfolio manager at Newfleet Asset Management, said:

"if the Fed relies on data as they claim, then the market will study every data carefully to see if this means that higher interest rates will last longer, or whether the possibility of raising interest rates will return to the negotiating table."

The first key data, US non-farm payrolls data, will be released on Friday, and more evidence that the job market is stronger than expected is likely to continue to undermine expectations of the Fed's rate cut this year. Investors now expect the Fed to cut interest rates by about 35 basis points in 2024, compared with more than 150 basis points in January.

While US stocks are not far from the record highs reached earlier this year, the rally has shaken in recent weeks as expectations of a Fed rate cut have waned, leading to the S & P 500's worst performance since September last month. Bond investors have been struggling for months, with 10-year Treasury yields up 70 basis points so far this year.

"Market expectations have shifted from one extreme to the other," said Paul Mielczarski, head of global macro strategy at Brandywine global. " He increased his holdings of five-year and seven-year Treasuries because he expected the Fed to eventually cut interest rates by more than the market had expected.

"naturally, the market is a little cautious. They are waiting for data to confirm the Fed's basic view that inflation can fall to 2 per cent without a recession, "he said."

Although it is relatively early this year, some investors worry that time may be running out for the Fed. Blerina Uruci, chief US economist at T Rowe Price, believes that the Fed will need at least three months of lower-than-expected economic data to be confident enough to cut interest rates.

Uruci said, "ifAxieinfinitycryptogameWe do not see the weakness in private sector rental prices reflected in the CPI data, how much confidence can we have that the anti-inflationary process will continue? I don't think the reversal of the inflation trend will happen any time soon. "

Others worry that rising interest rates will soon start to put pressure on some American companies. Jonathan Duensing, head of US fixed income at Amundi US, favours investment-grade corporate bonds, in part because he believes long-term high interest rates may put some pressure on lower-rated companies.

He is also bullish on US debt, which could benefit from safe-haven buying if "there are problems in the US economy in the future".

Tony Welch, chief investment officer of SignatureFD, believes that the rise in inflation earlier this year was mainly due to soaring commodity prices, in part because of concerns about the growing conflict in the Middle East. Oil prices fell to a seven-week low on Wednesday due to an unexpected increase in U.S. crude stocks and the prospect of a cease-fire in Israel and Gaza.

Welch is optimistic about small-cap stocks, saying that as long as the economic outlook remains good, small-cap stocks will benefit from a loose interest rate environment. "I am very confident that the Fed is right and their forecasts for inflation are correct," he said. "

Transferred from: Golden Ten data