freecasinobonusnodepositrequired|长安期货刘琳：需求拖累 玉米或低位运行

1. Summary

Recently, the weather problems in South America and other corn producing areas have attracted market attention.FreecasinobonusnodepositrequiredAmong them, due to floods in south-central Brazil and Argentine crops affected by continuous rainfall, insect pests and strikes, Ledo Maize led the main contract of US corn to rise, but US corn has not yet broken out of the low shock range of 430-460. and the technical side shows that the upside is slightly weak. Domestically, supply pressure has decreased since April, and due to the upside-down price of corn from North China to Northeast China, the reverse flow of corn from North China to Northeast China, and poor demand boosting, the main corn contract fell to 2375 in July from around 2460.

II. Fundamental analysis

(1) the selling pressure has decreased, but grain prices have been continuously weak.

According to Mysteel, 92% of grain is sold nationwide, slightly slower than in the same period last year. Specifically, 94% of grain was sold in Northeast China, unchanged from the same period last year, while the progress of grain sales in North China was 86%, and 90% in the same period last year. At present, 90% of the grain sold in the country is sold, and there is not much grain left. The progress of grain sales in Shandong has been accelerated recently, with only about 10% of the surplus grain left, while Henan and Hebei still have more than 10% of the surplus grain. Since April, grain prices across the country have continued to decline. Under the support of policy collection and storage and limited surplus grain, the northeast region is stable and slightly weaker, and the port price has dropped from 2380 to 2370. Due to the high selling pressure in North China, the grain price in Weifang has dropped from 2350 to 2240, and the price of the southern port has dropped from 2470 to 2390 due to substitution suppression. On the whole, the price has fallen to the low point since 2020, and the continuous upside-down of Shandong-Northeast leads to the outflow of grain sources in Northeast China, and the grain source in North China flows back to the Northeast. At the same time, the price of grain in the southern port-Northeast is also gradually upside down.

(2) the high stock of grain in the port

Corn stocks in the four northern ports were 3.47 million tons as of April 19, according to Mysteel, which has continued to increase this year, but is still at its lowest level since 2018. Guangdong port corn domestic trade inventory 560000 tons, an increase of 100000 tons over the same period last year, foreign trade corn inventory 34Freecasinobonusnodepositrequired. 40,000 tons, continued to decline from the previous month, falling to the lowest level since 2019. At the same time, Guangdong port grain inventory 222Freecasinobonusnodepositrequired.10,000 tons, the weekly high has dropped slightly, and the monthly level is still on the increase. In addition, the import of grain this year is 36.84 million tons, the highest since 2017-18. The import is exuberant and the price is advantageous, which suppresses the domestic corn demand.

(4) the downstream procurement is lukewarm and the boost effect is limited.

In terms of feed, as of April 26, the number of days of corn inventory in feed enterprises was 30.33 days, rising steadily and slightly, but the change was limited. According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and villages, the stock of 39.92 million fertile sows in China in March 2024 decreased for five consecutive months compared with the previous month.FreecasinobonusnodepositrequiredIt fell 1.24% from the same period last year, the ninth consecutive month of year-on-year decline, and the lowest number of columns since 2021, that is, the least in the past three years. However, compared with the "pig production capacity regulation and control implementation plan" newly established normal production capacity of 39 million heads is still more. At present, the number of live pigs corresponds to the stock of 42.96 million sows in June last year, which is still in the high range, and the feed demand is still guaranteed. In mid-early March, the farming end pressed the bar price, and the second fattening actively entered the market, resulting in a rise in pig prices exceeding market expectations, and breeding profits turned from negative to positive one after another. Up to now, the profit of purchased piglets is 240 yuan per head, and the profit of self-breeding is 110 yuan per head. At the same time, the average weight of live pigs and slaughtering has increased, reaching 123kg at the end of April, while Zhuochuang Information shows that the average trading weight of live pigs across the country is 124.10 kg, up 1.79% from the lowest point of February 8 before the Spring Festival. In the follow-up, as the temperature rises, the pig weight gain or slow down, and the demand for big pigs gradually weakens, the weight gain under the fence may be weakened. In addition, taking into account the acceleration of capacity removal, the market is strongly bullish for the second half of the year, if pig prices fall or enhance the enthusiasm of secondary fattening, thus the feed demand is guaranteed. However, there are abundant imports of substitutes, or partly dampen the demand for raw corn.

In terms of deep processing, as of May 3, the enterprise's raw material corn inventory continued to rise to 5.84 million tons, an increase of 400000 tons month-on-month, which was still the second highest since 2019 compared with the same period last year. The added value of starch inventory of products was 1.33 million tons, and rose to the high level since 2019. Due to the increase in starch supply and off-season consumption, the decline in prices has engulfed processing profits, in which the price of Shandong starch has fallen to 2880 from around 3200 at the beginning of the year, the processing profits of Shandong enterprises have dropped to 8, and Jilin's profits have turned to a loss since the first ten days of April. In addition to the impact of downtime and maintenance, the operating rate of deep processing enterprises has dropped to 66.4%. Follow-up, corn is still facing many negative or pressure operation, at the same time product losses or guide deep processing enterprises to reduce the operating rate, careful procurement.

(5) News tracking in 2024-25

Market research shows that the corn planting area of three provinces and one region in northeast China has declined slightly, of which Heilongjiang has slightly decreased by 3%, Liaoning has a larger decline, and Jilin and Inner Mongolia have slightly increased. On the whole, it is mainly affected by the target task of replanting between corn and soybean and worried about the loss of corn, resulting in a slight reduction in planting area. The cost of land rent in three provinces and one region in Northeast China has generally declined, and the rate of decline varies from place to place. According to market news, the local land rent is reduced by about 2000-3000 yuan per hectare, equivalent to a reduction of 300,400 yuan / ton in arrival cost, thus it is estimated that the cost of corn conversion to Hong Kong this year is about 2200-2300 yuan / ton.

(6) the price difference of raw materials for products continues to narrow.

At present, the base difference of Jinzhou Port remains stable, which is calculated at 2200 in Heilongjiang area, which is basically the same as that of the port. At present, the basis difference is maintained in a reasonable range. There is little change in the contract spread from September to January. At the same time, the price gap between starch and corn in Shandong continues to narrow, from the mid-year high of 910 to the current 640, which will still suppress corn prices. according to cost calculation and the relationship between supply and demand of products, the price gap still has some room to fall. The continuous decline of wheat prices in the early stage led to the decline of the wheat-corn base difference, but it still did not reach the substitution range. In the follow-up, the wheat is growing well and the pressure of high yield remains, and the corn will still be under pressure in the short term.

(7) Variations of corn yield in major South American producing countries

　　近期南半球国家的主季收获即将启动，但恶劣天气抑制了主要生产国的单产前景。巴西南部和中西部的主要产区天气条件并不理想，或导致单产前景受限，FAO预计玉米产量降低至1.11亿吨，不过仍略高于过去五年的平均水平。其他机构产量预期仍未有大幅调整，尤其STonex仍在上调巴西产量。阿根廷谷物交易所因虫害和天气影响再次大幅下调玉米产量预估至4650万吨，低于前次预估的4950万吨，为近七年除17-18和22-23年度遭受严重干旱打击导致大幅减产外的最低水平。在叶蝉数量出现异常增长之前，交易所最初预估玉米产量将创下5650万吨的纪录高位。整体来看，南美玉米产量因天气原因存在调整空间，但整体而言，全球玉米依旧供应充裕，美玉米或难以脱离低位区间。

　　三、小结与展望

　　当下，供应压力逐步降低但需求不佳导致价格持续偏弱，东北-华北玉米价格倒挂。具体来看，全国供应压力大幅减轻。需求端，深加工企业玉米库存稳步增加，但随着淀粉累库价格接连下跌，生产利润逐步收缩，其中吉林已转为亏损，且部分地区出现停机检修，对原料玉米提振作用有限。饲料企业玉米库存天数仅是小幅抬升，且养殖利润依旧低位，叠加谷物进口高企，价格优势明显，玉米饲用需求乏力。库存端，北港玉米库存继续抬升至与去年持平，广东港玉米与谷物库存均有小幅降低，或一定程度上支撑玉米期现货价格，但整体而言，谷物库存高企。整体而言，供应压力减轻但需求端提振不足。后续华北地区面临麦收腾库，华北地区价格或反弹乏力，东北地区难寻价格提振动能，或由东北价格回落修复价差，预计期货价格承压筑底为主，关注2350-2375附近的支撑力度。

　　分析师简介：

　　刘琳，长安期货研究员，西北大学统计学硕士，进入期货市场以来一直专注于玉米、白糖等品种研究，对农产品现货市场有系统的了解，善于结合统计学理论基础分析农产品现货产业链，并从基本面信息和政策指导中预测行情走势。